Expected Goals (xG): What They Are and How to Read Them
Discover what Expected Goals (xG) are, how they are calculated, and how to interpret them to better understand the chances created in a match.
What are Expected Goals (xG)
Expected Goals, abbreviated as xG, are a statistic used to estimate the probability that a shot results in a goal.
Basically, each shot is evaluated based on the quality of the opportunity. A very dangerous shot will have a higher xG value, while a difficult shot will have a lower value.
How to read xG
The xG value is usually expressed as a number between 0 and 1 for each shot.
- 0.10 xG indicates about a 10% chance of scoring;
- 0.50 xG indicates about a 50% chance;
- 0.90 xG indicates an extremely favorable opportunity.
During a match, the values of individual shots are summed to get the overall xG of a team.
Practical example
Imagine a team takes four shots with the following values:
- 0.10 xG;
- 0.25 xG;
- 0.40 xG;
- 0.15 xG.
The total is 0.90 xG.
This does not mean the team is expected to score exactly 0.90 goals. Instead, it means that, considering the quality of the chances created, the total opportunities statistically equate to about 0.90 expected goals.
How Expected Goals are calculated
xG models can vary, but generally take into account numerous factors related to the shot.
Some of the main elements considered may include:
- distance from goal;
- shooting angle;
- part of the body used;
- type of assist;
- game situation;
- shot position;
- presence of defenders;
- set-piece action or open play.
Why xG is useful
The final score does not always fully describe the flow of a match.
A team can win 1-0 while creating very few chances, while the opponent may have built several important opportunities without scoring.
xG helps to better understand the quality of chances created by both teams.
Do high xG always mean victory?
No. Expected Goals are a statistic, not a certainty about the result.
A team can generate 2.50 xG and not score, or score two goals from chances with a very low total xG value.
This can happen because football is influenced by many factors including precision, player quality, goalkeeper saves, deflections, and random events.
What is the difference between shots and xG?
The simple number of shots indicates how many times a team has shot towards goal but does not describe the quality of the chances.
For example, ten long-distance shots may be less dangerous than two shots taken from close range.
xG tries to distinguish between easy and difficult opportunities.
xG and actual result
Comparing Expected Goals with the final result can help interpret a match better.
If a team wins despite having much lower xG values than the opponent, it could mean they made very efficient use of their chances or benefited from a great goalkeeper performance.
Conversely, a team with high xG but few goals may have wasted many opportunities.
Are xG values the same on all sites?
No. Values can vary slightly between statistical providers.
This happens because each provider may use its own mathematical model and consider different variables.
For this reason, it is normal to find xG values not exactly the same for the same match on different platforms.
How to use xG along with other statistics
Expected Goals become even more useful when compared with other match data such as:
- total shots;
- shots on target;
- possession;
- chances created;
- corner kicks;
- match flow.
No single statistic can perfectly describe a match, but xG is a useful tool for a more complete understanding.
How to follow statistics on Football17
On Football17 you can consult match results, statistics, events, line-ups, head-to-head and other information to better analyze each game.
When xG data is available from the provider, it can be used along with other statistics to better understand the quality of chances created.
Frequently asked questions about xG
What does xG mean?
xG stands for Expected Goals.
Does xG of 1 mean a sure goal?
No. xG represents a statistical probability and does not guarantee a shot will become a goal.
Can xG values be higher than 1?
The value of a single shot is normally less than or equal to 1, while a team's total xG can be greater than 1 because it is the sum of multiple chances.
Do xG predict the final result?
No. They help evaluate the quality of chances but do not determine the match outcome with certainty.
Why do xG values vary between different sites?
Because providers may use different statistical models and calculation criteria.